On December 11, Wen Qian, deputy chief engineer of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Chemical Industry Daily that according to research from the International Fertilizer Association (lFA), the world's fertilizer industry will maintain a growth trend.
  Steady increase in total consumption
In 2018, the world's fertilizer consumption was about 250 million tons (equivalent to pure), of which agricultural consumption was 190 million tons, and a small amount was consumed in other fields such as industry. Affected by factors such as rising raw material prices and trade tensions, consumption growth has slowed down. In the agricultural sector, the consumption of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, and potassium fertilizer was 105 million tons, 45 million tons, and 37 million tons, respectively, which increased by 0.4%, 1.0%, and 2.2% compared with 2017.
Wu Wenqian believes that the global fertilizer supply will continue to increase in the next five years, but the growth rate has begun to weaken. It is expected that the net growth of production capacity of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, and potassium fertilizer will be 5%, 7%, and 13%, respectively. It will show the development trend of accelerated nitrogen fertilizer elimination, mild expansion of phosphate fertilizer, and rapid growth of potassium fertilizer.
Wu Wenqian pointed out that fertilizer consumption will still increase, but the growth rate depends on the population growth rate and the efficiency of fertilizer application. According to IFA forecasts, the average annual growth rate of fertilizer consumption in the next five years will be about 1.1%, of which nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, and potassium fertilizer will grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%, 1.6%, and 1.9%, respectively. Overall, it is expected that the growth rate of fertilizer consumption in 2019 will increase to about 1.4%.
Guaranteed supply of raw materials
According to Wen Qian, from the perspective of the world, from 2000 to 2018, the share of natural gas in the raw material portfolio was stable at 70%; secondly, coal raw materials accounted for 28%; other raw materials include naphtha, hydrogen, fuel oil and refining by-products. The proportion of products, etc., was reduced from 4% to 2%.
  Since the end of 2017, energy prices have risen steadily. US natural gas prices in the second half of 2018 ranged from $ 3.0 / MMBtu to $ 3.3 / MMBtu. Australian coal prices have risen by about 8% in the past two years. Affected by North American shale gas, in the next five years, the share of natural gas ammonia production capacity will rise to 74%, and nearly 94% of the new ammonia production capacity will use natural gas.
Energy supply has provided sufficient guarantees for fertilizer production, and has also increased overseas competition to intensify global competition.
Intensified competition
  Wu Wenqian pointed out that in recent years, a series of trade measures have appeared in the fertilizer industry, including the upgrading of trade tariffs and trade protection measures, import bans and administrative import barriers, which have affected many products in many regions. In 2018, the two main factors affecting global trade were the United States' announcement of unilateral trade sanctions on Iran and the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions.
In the short term, Sino-U.S. Trade friction does not have much direct impact on fertilizer trade between the two countries. In the long run, international trade competition has intensified due to rising input costs, slowing growth in nutrient demand, and continued growth in global production capacity.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, global trade is expected to be relatively stable in general. The volume of potassium and phosphate trade will continue to increase. Urea will be affected by the expansion of production capacity and supply potential of major importing countries (India, the United States, Nigeria, etc.) The amount will decrease.
Remarkable progress in special fertilizer technology
According to statistics, the global consumption of special value-added fertilizers such as controlled-release fertilizers, slow-release fertilizers, sulfur-coated fertilizers, stable fertilizers, water-soluble fertilizers, liquid fertilizers, and trace element fertilizers in 2018 is about 19.3 million tons, which is about 8.6 million tons. About 4.8% of global nutrient consumption.
Wu Wenqian said that special fertilizers are applied differently in different regions and different crops. In some environmentally sensitive areas and countries with advanced agricultural technology, special fertilizers can help reduce nutrient loss and environmental pollution; in some labor-poor areas, slow-release fertilizers and controlled-release fertilizers can reduce the frequency of fertilization and facilitate crop absorption.
  From the perspective of different nutrients, the current global consumption of special fertilizers for nitrogen fertilizer accounts for 6.7%, mainly stable fertilizers, consumption of phosphate fertilizers accounts for 1.9%, and consumption of potassium fertilizers accounts for 3.1%. It is estimated that specialty fertilizers will continue to grow at an average annual rate of over 4% in developed countries. In developing countries, the potential for development will be greater due to the impact of improved agricultural product quality and environmental protection pressures.