Since December last year, methanol port inventory fell unexpectedly. At the same time, with the news of accidental overhaul of foreign installations, expectations that imports will be affected in the first quarter of 2020 also began to emerge, and the problem of port warehouses that have been suppressing methanol prices for a long time has also temporarily Mitigation, methanol futures have also come out of a wave of rebound.
Port inventory inflows are less and more
Affected by comprehensive factors, port inventories fell from a total of 111,500 tons in eastern and southern China to 675,500 tons in the peak period, a decrease of 41%. In terms of port inflows, since November last year, due to the weather, the closure of the port for some time has begun to affect the arrival of methanol ports. In addition, since late November last year, the price of methanol has fallen to a low level, and it has just started to buy on dips. At the same time, short positions have also begun to cover up, and new transactions have continued to increase. During the same period in the Mainland, some methanol installations were temporarily shut down, the market also became active, and transactions began to pick up. Subsequently, the gas head methanol plant in the southwest region was shut down ahead of time. At the same time, Luxi added 300,000 tons of methanol produced outside the mine to stimulate demand. The olefin plant continued to purchase, and the inventory remained low. . In addition, news of accidental maintenance of foreign methanol plants continues. As of now, foreign methanol inspection plants involve a total of 13.57 million tons of methanol production capacity, and the market also has the expectation that methanol imports may be affected in the first quarter.
From the overall situation of the spot market, although it is in the traditional downstream off-season, the profit of methanol to olefins is still good, and the number of accidental overhauls of foreign units has increased. The expectation of easing port inventory has been extended to the first and second quarters of this year, and methanol futures have also performed strongly recently. .
Supply and demand have not changed substantially
The long-term trend of loose methanol supply has not changed substantially. The overall domestic methanol production has remained above 70%. The annual methanol output is expected to exceed 50 million tons and the capacity reaches 90 million tons. At the same time, 12 sets of methanol units planned to be put into operation in 2020, total 8.55 million tons of production capacity. In terms of overall consumption performance, China's methanol performance consumption totaled nearly 50 million tons as of October 2019, and it is estimated that the annual performance consumption will be around 60 million tons. Among them, the overall methanol consumption in recent years has basically remained near 17 million tons. At present, the increase in methanol demand mainly comes from olefins. The olefin units planned to be put into operation in 2020, Changzhou Fude, Tianjin Bohai Chemical, and Qinghai Damei, will consume more than 4 million tons of methanol. At the same time, methanol imports have risen significantly in 2019, and the full year is expected to exceed 10 million tons. In the short term, new foreign production capacity, such as the Iranian Bushehr plant, will also bring new supply to China's coastal ports. Data show that imports are expected to be more than 600,000 tons in the next two weeks, and we will continue to focus on cashing in Hong Kong. Happening.
Future trend depends on profit
It is worth noting that although the overall methanol price is in a downward trend in 2019, the fluctuation of the profit of imported methanol has become significantly smaller. In 2019, almost all import profits fluctuated within a profit of plus or minus 100 yuan. Compared with the amplitude of nearly 800 yuan / ton in 2018, profits have basically stabilized. This can also reflect two important situations. First, under the impact of a large number of imported goods in our country's methanol market, the price of methanol has been fully in line with the international price of methanol, and international trends have a more significant impact on domestic prices. Secondly, with the overall abundant methanol production capacity, the cost situation and profit situation may play a more important role in regulating the methanol output, thus transmitting to the price trend of methanol.
From the perspective of the methanol trend in 2019, the overall methanol 2005 contract is still in a downward channel. At present, the profit of imported methanol has reached a high level driven by the strong port market, and the overall methanol spot situation has not substantially changed. Investors are not advised to chase up. In the later period, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material prices and equipment maintenance.
