The situation of oversupply is severe

后 After the domestic social public events were brought under control, there was a problem with the recovery rhythm of the methanol industry chain: When the terminal failed to start, methanol companies resumed work on a large scale, causing a rapid backlog of methanol stocks.

First, domestic methanol production enterprises resume work earlier than downstream. At present, most of the downstream of methanol is still in the recovery period. Traditional downstream recovery time such as formaldehyde and MTBE has shifted back from the same period of previous years, and currently it has not reached 70% of the same period last year. As a result, domestic methanol producers and most of the downstream markets have more methanol inventories than in the same period of history. The market has quickly fallen into a slow-moving situation, and the decline in methanol prices has further accelerated the speed of receiving goods downstream, thus making the entire industrial chain methanol inventory higher.

Second, since November last year, methanol imports have maintained a relatively high profit, at a time above 200 yuan / ton. Importers of methanol continue to import in large quantities, which has led to a significant increase in marketable inventories in coastal areas. So far, the tradable goods in the port area have reached 350,000 tons, which is 50% higher than the same period last year. The total methanol inventory in the port area is also on the high side, currently at about 1.05 million tons, which is basically the same as the same period last year, but much higher than the same period of previous years.

Upstream and downstream methanol inventories are at high levels, and downstream demand is recovering less than expected, which has caused the current spot price of methanol to continue to decline but shipments are not smooth. And without excess tank capacity storage, even if the price of methanol drops, it will not be able to stimulate downstream to accept more cargo. The continued sluggish sales will lead to a large-scale production shutdown of methanol production enterprises.

大幅 Manufacturing enterprises have suffered substantial losses

At present, spot prices in many regions have fallen below the cost line of most companies, and methanol producers have suffered serious losses. At the same time, because methanol inventory cannot be effectively released, the operation of methanol plants has been forced to decline. Last week, individual inventories in the inland areas were seriously high, and methanol companies with poor sales have begun spring maintenance.

This week, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, a total of 2.8 million tons / year of methanol production capacity began maintenance. In April, it is estimated that about 5.1 million tons / year of methanol units will be overhauled in China. In May, more than 5.5 million tons / year of methanol units will be overhauled.

If the above equipment is overhauled as scheduled, the domestic methanol operating rate will be at a relatively low level of 65% for two consecutive months, the supply will drop significantly, and the current high methanol inventory is also expected to decline rapidly. If downstream operations resume to the same period last year, the short-term market will be in short supply.

At present, the operating rate of methanol-to-olefins plants is relatively low. At the end of this month, two sets of methanol-to-olefins plants totaling 1.4 million tons / year will be resumed, and the demand for methanol will increase by about 350,000 tons in April. In the traditional downstream area, the resumption of work in the formaldehyde industry has begun. The MTBE industry has been stimulated by low oil prices, and the operating rate has also increased. The remaining downstream operating rate is expected to return to the same period last year in mid-April.

In summary, with the start of the domestic methanol industry's spring parking maintenance, the situation of oversupply in the methanol market is expected to end, and it can be completely resolved from April to May. At the same time, after this round of reshuffle, some of the domestic methanol market's small-scale installations and backward technology capacity may completely withdraw from the market.